[64] Also UBS warned of hyperinflation, a bank run and even "military coups and possible civil war that could afflict a departing country". This latter contraction of balance sheets "could lead to a depression", the analyst said. [357] The 2015 budget includes a surplus for the first time since 1969. [45] The Greek GDP had its worst decline in 2011 with −6.9%,[46] a year where the seasonal adjusted industrial output ended 28.4% lower than in 2005,[47][48] and with 111,000 Greek companies going bankrupt (27% higher than in 2010). [363][364] By 2012, wages in Greece had been cut to a level last seen in the late 1990s. [374], On 15 November 2011, the Lisbon Council published the Euro Plus Monitor 2011. [439] In the case of Greece, the market responded to the crisis before the downgrades, with Greek bonds trading at junk levels several weeks before the ratings agencies began to describe them as such. [87][88][89] This phenomenon became known as "Grexit" and started to govern international market behaviour. [10] The under-reporting was exposed through a revision of the forecast for the 2009 budget deficit from "6–8%" of GDP (no greater than 3% of GDP was a rule of the Maastricht Treaty) to 12.7%, almost immediately after PASOK won the October 2009 Greek national elections. [155] During September 2012, regulators indicated that Spanish banks required €59 billion (US$77 billion) in additional capital to offset losses from real estate investments. Why hasn't the continent's canniest politician sprung into action? ..."[387][388][389], In its spring 2012 economic forecast, the European Commission finds "some evidence that the current-account rebalancing is underpinned by changes in relative prices and competitiveness positions as well as gains in export market shares and expenditure switching in deficit countries". [431] Around 2005 most eurozone members violated the pact, resulting in no action taken against violators. [65][66] Eurozone National Central Banks (NCBs) may lose up to €100bn in debt claims against the Greek national bank through the ECB's TARGET2 system. How time flies. [479][480] German chancellor Merkel has stated that "institutions bailed out with public funds are exploiting the budget crisis in Greece and elsewhere". It usually becomes a crisis when the country's leaders ignore these indicators for political reasons. [532][533][534], On 18 August 2011, as requested by the Finnish parliament as a condition for any further bailouts, it became apparent that Finland would receive collateral from Greece, enabling it to participate in the potential new €109 billion support package for the Greek economy. This should bring Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio down to 124% by 2020 and well below 110% two years later. Yet plenty of strategists say there's a way to make money off the next phase of the sovereign debt crisis. [49][50] As a result, Greeks have lost about 40% of their purchasing power since the start of the crisis,[51] they spend 40% less on goods and services,[52] and the seasonal adjusted unemployment rate grew from 7.5% in September 2008 to a record high of 27.9% in June 2013,[53] while the youth unemployment rate rose from 22.0% to as high as 62%. [403] The new legislation would give member states the power to impose losses, resulting from a bank failure, on the bondholders to minimise costs for taxpayers. [268] Default swaps also fell. Both stem from a government's borrowing activity and rise in particular under an expansionary fiscal policy. The authors concluded that rating agencies were not consistent in their judgments, on average rating Portugal, Ireland, and Greece 2.3 notches lower than under pre-crisis standards, eventually forcing them to seek international aid. There were rumours in the press that the Greek government has proposed immediately to end the previously agreed and continuing IMF bailout programme for 2015–16, replacing it with the transfer of €11bn unused bank recapitalization funds currently held as reserve by the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF), along with establishment of a new precautionary Enhanced Conditions Credit Line (ECCL) issued by the European Stability Mechanism. [100] "If credit starts flowing again, Spain could surprise us.